Looking at the developments of LTE over the last years, and the planned developments for the future, could LTE be called a success?
That this is not such a straightforward question, with an easy, correct answer can be seen from uncountable disputes, blogs and opinions floating around the Internet. Trying to find an answer, one could try and compare the standard with competitors in the field. A little bit of research shows that LTE and WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) are operating in the same area.
WiMAX is an IEEE standard for broadband wireless networks, and officially belongs to the 3G family according to the ITU (International Telecommunication Union). Updates are planned to increase data rates and be able to meet the ITU requirements for 4G systems.
‘Winning’
Comparing LTE to WiMAX seems to be a battle without an ending. For years now, the ‘fight’ has been going on, with its ups and downs for the WiMAX party. This might get spectators thinking that LTE is on the winning hand. The problem here is actually, when has one of the parties won? If winning is total extinction of the opponent, than it is not likely to happen in quite some years. LTE might have a huge fan-base, but there are not much examples of working LTE networks yet. More and more operators are starting to roll out LTE networks, and mobiles with LTE functionality are starting to be released, so it is looking good there. WiMAX however is already operational in some parts of the world for some years already, and has got a growing number of supporters too. Truth is, some parts of the (developed) world will not see a functional LTE network in the next five years, and other parts (might be more) will not have to option to use WiMAX services.
Economic value
Trying to answer the success-question, it may not be a good idea to focus on the debate of which technique will be the winner. Looking at economic values of the standard is another way of evaluation the question.
LTE does have the advantage of an economy of scale. The potential (and perhaps already established) size of the network is huge. It looks like whole countries or even continents are willing to use the standard as their main (stepping-stone-to) future generation mobile network. Network externalities is another factor that greatly favours LTE. When the network is established, I have the option to reach all other subscribers using the same services. Every new mobile connected to LTE will increase the size of the network. A side question here could be whether the users have a choice in this. As noted before, it is highly unlikely that LTE will have to compete with for instance WiMAX everywhere it is used. It might look a bit like local monopolies where the user can be connected to next generation mobile Internet services like LTE or WiMAX, but cannot choose which one, simply because there is only one network available at the users location.
This last effect might get people thinking about possible lock-in effects due to high switching cost if there would be an option to choose which network to use. Suppose you have a mobile with LTE functionality, but would like to change to the WiMAX standard, which is not compatible with your current hardware. In my opinion, this will not have any impact on the standard. The choice for the network is namely not really made by the user, but by the operator. That operator will most likely not make a huge capital investment in rolling out multiple networks to perform the same function. Choosing an operator brings a certain network and vice versa. Since the networks will all be connected to the Internet, it will be no problem calling or mailing an LTE mobile with a WiMAX one.
Conclusion
The fact that there is a global demand for LTE networks and the incredible amount of discussion about which one will be or is better (do a google on ‘LTE vs WiMAX’ and count the hits), does point out that LTE is a great success in my opinion. If a standard is able to grow this big, and is known by this many (future) users, the question whether it is the best is not important.
A success it is.